Grow a Garden mutation odds calculator
Roll math for Gold, Rainbow, Shocked, and Frozen mutations across N harvests. Mutations are independent rolls per harvest, so the same formula every drop-rate calculator uses applies.
How mutations work in Grow a Garden
Every harvest in Grow a Garden rolls for a mutation. Most rolls miss and you get a plain crop. The mutation tiers are Gold (20× sheckle value), Rainbow (50×), Shocked (100×, only during Lightning event windows), and Frozen (10×, only during Winter events). Some crops also have niche event mutations.
The roll is per-harvest, independent. That matches the math of every odds calculator on this site: 1 − (1 − p)N. The number you should care about most is the 50%-confidence median — that's the harvest count at which half of players will have gotten the mutation already.
The presets are approximations. Roblox developers can tweak rates between updates without publishing the change, so always treat these as community estimates.
Strategy with the math
Don't chase Shocked unless an event is live
Shocked is only obtainable while a Lightning event is active. The base rate during the event is around 0.5% per harvest, which means the 50% median is roughly 140 harvests. If the event is in its last 12 hours, do the math: it's usually not worth restructuring your farm for a low-probability roll.
Gold harvest counts compound
Gold sits at roughly 5% per harvest. Across 100 harvests you've got a 99.4% chance of at least one Gold. That's why long-grow crops with high base sheckle values (Starfruit, Celestial Orchid) outperform farming volume — you're trading a few harvests for near-guaranteed mutation rolls.
FAQ
Can a single crop carry multiple mutations?
Sometimes, on rare overlap rolls. The base mutations listed here are mutually exclusive in the standard roll; cross-mutations show up via specific event interactions.
Where can I see the exact rates Roblox uses?
The developer occasionally publishes them in changelogs. Otherwise, community testing has converged on the rates used in the presets here.
Do mutation odds change by crop?
The base mutation rates are crop-agnostic. What changes is the resulting value — a Gold Strawberry is worth 1,000 sheckles, a Gold Starfruit is worth 164,000.