Adopt Me egg hatch odds calculator
Given a hatch chance and an attempt count, what are the real odds of getting your target pet? This is the probability math behind the "I opened 200 eggs and still no Shadow" stories.
How egg hatch math works
Adopt Me eggs are independent draws. Each hatch is a fresh roll against the egg's drop table, and previous hatches don't influence the next one. That means the right way to think about hatch odds isn't "I'm due for one" — every hatch starts fresh.
The math is the complement of "miss every time." If a single hatch has chance p of giving you the target, the chance of missing is 1 − p. The chance of missing N times in a row is (1 − p)N. The chance of getting at least one is the complement: 1 − (1 − p)N. That's the formula behind the first result cell.
The "Hatches for 50% odds" and "Hatches for 90% odds" cells answer the practical question — how many hatches before it'd be unusual not to have one. At a 1% drop rate, you'd need 69 hatches for 50% confidence and 229 hatches for 90%.
When to use it
- Budgeting an egg run. Decide how many eggs you'd need to buy before quitting.
- Sanity-checking a streak. Beating long odds and missing long odds happen with predictable frequency.
- Comparing eggs. A 5% legendary at 100 hatches has very different odds from a 0.5% legendary at 100 hatches — see for yourself.
Worked example
Say you're chasing a 1.5% pet across 200 hatches. Type 1.5 in the rate, 200 in the count. The "at least one" cell shows roughly 95%. The "expected" cell shows 3 — three is the average count of that pet you'd own if you ran the experiment many times. The 50% and 90% medians show 46 and 152 — useful targets if you don't want to gamble all 200 hatches at once.
FAQ
Are the rates here the official Adopt Me drop rates?
Adopt Me publishes per-egg rates in the in-game UI. The presets here approximate the most common categories. Always check the egg's own rate panel before committing to a long run.
Does the "expected" number guarantee that many pulls?
No. Expected is the long-run average — the typical outcome across many sessions. A single 200-hatch session could pull zero, three, or six. The probability cell answers the more useful question.
What about pity systems?
Adopt Me eggs don't have a documented pity system. The math here assumes independent draws, which matches the in-game behavior people see.